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From lines on a map to soil under the fingernails: Can the Green Tripartite Agreement survive reality?

The plans are drawn. Twenty-three local tripartite groups have sketched the future landscape with green ambitions. Now comes the hard part: turning them into reality. Research points to solutions, but also warnings.

[Translate to English:] Fra streger på kortet til virkelighed. 23 lokale treparter har tegnet grønne ambitioner for fremtidens landskab. Nu skal planerne omsættes, det er en opgave fuld af muligheder og udfordringer. Photo: Camilla Brodam Galacho

It’s January, and the cold hangs like a lid over Lemvig in Denmark. Inside the meeting room, coffee cups steam while maps with coloured lines lie scattered across the table. Municipal employees, landowners, and nature advocates lean over them. The Green Tripartite has brought them together to design the future landscape: low-lying soils must be retired, forests must rise, and nature must have space. But how do you do that without breaking agriculture, and without breaking trust? 

From plan to practice

The Green Tripartite was launched as a historic collaboration between agriculture, nature organisations, and municipalities. The ambition is clear: reallocate land, reduce nitrogen emissions, sequester carbon, and create more nature.

After a year, the plans are ready. Twenty-three local tripartite groups have submitted their visions for Denmark’s future. But now comes the hard part: implementation.

“2026 will be the reality test,” said Morten Graversgaard from the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University at the Plant Congress held January 7–8 in Herning. “2025 was about processes and relationships. Now it’s about landowners and economics. We know this not only from our own observations but from the first comprehensive evaluation of the tripartite collaboration, based on questionnaires and interviews with participants and municipal facilitators. The evaluation shows that trust has been built, but it’s fragile and person-dependent. That’s why implementation in 2026 will be the real stress test.”

Robustness is key

Researchers from Aarhus University and the University of Copenhagen are closely following developments through the Transform project, which aims to support the Green Tripartite with knowledge and decision-making tools.

Professor Tommy Dalgaard from the Department of Agroecology calls robustness the decisive word:

“A robust land-use plan isn’t just one that looks good on paper. It must survive political shifts, economic shocks, and climate change, while delivering on climate, nature, and agriculture.” He and Professor Henrik Vejre from the University of Copenhagen emphasised this in their presentation at the Plant Congress.

Robustness means:

  • Flexibility: Plans must adapt when conditions change.
  • Multifunctionality: Projects must deliver on multiple agendas: nitrogen, carbon, biodiversity, not just one, while allowing sustainable agricultural development.
  • Support: Both political and public. Landowner involvement is crucial, but broad citizen dialogue is missing.
  • Financing: Schemes must be more flexible so good projects don’t fail due to technicalities.

The Transform project is developing models to show where land-use changes have the greatest impact and how to combine agricultural production with nature and climate efforts.

Why does it matter?

If the transition succeeds, Denmark can take a historic step toward meeting both the Climate Act’s targets and EU requirements for water quality and biodiversity. If it fails, we risk losing not just time, but trust.

“The tripartite agreement was a necessary precondition, but it’s not sufficient on its own,” stressed Morten Graversgaard. “We now need capacity, voluntariness, and clear frameworks, or we’ll stall.”

Voices from practice

Municipalities face a huge task. As project officer Emil Grøn from Lemvig Municipality said at the congress:
“We’ve been busy drawing lines on maps. Now we need to drink coffee with landowners and bring the projects to life.”

From finger plan to future landscape

Robustness isn’t static. It’s the ability to adapt without losing direction. If the Green Tripartite is to succeed, we must combine knowledge, dialogue, and flexible solutions. And perhaps, as Henrik Vejre said with a twinkle in his eye, learn from the Finger Plan of 1947:

“It has survived for 80 years because it was well thought out and had broad support. That’s the kind of robustness we should strive for.”

Fact Box: Transform – The Research Behind the Green Tripartite

What is Transform?
Transform is a research and innovation project that monitors and supports the implementation of the Green Tripartite. It examines how Denmark can reallocate agricultural land in ways that are climate-friendly, economically sustainable, and socially anchored.

Purpose:

  • Develop knowledge and tools to make land-use changes robust over time.
  • Provide decision support for municipalities, tripartite groups, and landowners.
  • Analyse how to combine climate action, nature protection, and agricultural production in multifunctional solutions.

Why is it important?
The Green Tripartite is a historic agreement, but it faces major challenges: political shifts, economic barriers, and local conflicts. Transform aims to ensure the transition becomes real change, not just plans on paper.

Who is behind it?

  • Aarhus University (Tommy Dalgaard, Department of Agroecology)
  • University of Copenhagen (Henrik Vejre, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management)
  • SEGES Innovation (Irene Wiborg, Plants and Environment), along with municipalities, university departments, and public/private partners.

Funding:
Supported by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and the 5th of June Foundation, which have invested significantly in green agricultural transformation. Novo Nordisk Foundation has allocated billions to green research, with Transform as a key initiative.

Timeline:
Transform runs for several years, following the entire process from planning to implementation. It delivers ongoing analyses, models, and recommendations to local and national decision-makers.

Examples of activities:

  • Evaluation of early experiences with the Green Tripartite.
  • Development of scenarios for robust land-use change.
  • Mapping barriers and solutions from landowner involvement to financing models.

See more at http://www.Transform-DK.org

For more information: 

Morten Graversgaard, Associate Professor, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University. Tel: +45 25645560

Tommy Dalgaard, Professor, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University. Tel: +45 20706132

Henrik Vejre, Professor, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen. Tel: +45 20621015

Camilla Brodam Galacho, Communications Advisor, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University. Tel.: 93522136